Presidential debate #1 : 22 thoughts and predictions.
The first debate takes place between Donald Trump and Joe Biden tonight.
They will be discussing:
Their respective records
The Supreme Court
The coronavirus pandemic
The economy
Race and violence in cities
Election integrity
The phrase “discuss and debate” must be taken with a grain of Baltic Sea salt whenever a certain individual is involved. There’s all kinds of smart people predicting the specifics of how each will respond and articulate themselves.
This is what I think, in broad strokes, about how it will go.
Trump will have a surprise guest of some sort, in spite of limited and social distancing spectators. Similar to how he brought Bill Clinton assault accusers to his debate with Hillary in 2016.
Trump will take a whack at physically dominating, again similar to walking behind Hillary in 2016.
Biden will talk specifics. Trump will talk generalities.
A huge portion will be about making things about Hunter Biden (Joe’s son).
That will be the offensive missive in responding - or not responding - to reports this week about Trump’s paying - or not paying - of federal taxes over the last decade. Specifically $750 in 2016 and 2017, and the fact that he has $400+ million in personal loans coming due over the next four years.
Any reality that is different from what Trump says will be repeatedly referred to as “fake news” and "the liberal Democrat media.”
Biden will use the phrase “the American people” slightly more frequently than Trump.
Trump will use the phrase “loser” or a variation at least five times.
They will smile the same amount. Biden a grin because he’ll gain confidence and will keep picking up steam. Trump a grimace because he’s getting angry and frustrated.
Chris Wallace, moderator, will have to caution Biden more to wrap up in his time limit.
Wallace will have to caution Trump more to A) not interrupt and B) respond to the question being asked.
Trump will make two references to Portland, Oregon.
Religion will become a big part of the Supreme Court portion as they discuss their respective faiths and role that religion plays in the administration of law.
Biden will use the word “fail” or a derivative at least ten times.
Trump will make some reference to making sure a Biden goes to prison.
Trump will throw the entire nation of China under the bus in anything related to the pandemic, closely followed by “the do-nothing Democrats.”
Trump will make a derogatory remark to moderator Chris Wallace at some point, probably after being cautioned, that Mr. Wallace’s father (Mike) was a much better journalist.
Trump will make one reference to Biden being drug-tested, with the hope that it will go somewhere. Because Biden has been preparing for this debate for months, he will be prepared, and that line of inquiry, along with others, will fall flat and have nowhere to go. This will make Trump very unhappy, very frustrated, and bull-in-China-shop (pun intended) ready to go on the offensive. Since he can’t go on the offensive very well on policy, he’ll go on the offensive over character. That comes down to two things: A) Joe Biden probably takes drugs and should be tested RIGHT NOW, and B) Joe Biden’s son Hunter is a criminal and the entire Biden family should go to prison or death row, along with the Clintons.
Biden will reference Obama positively six times. Trump will reference Obama very negatively six times, most of which will involve either A) the pandemic being his fault or B) that he was spying on Trump’s team during the last election.
Trump will bring up, off the cuff, references to inappropriate touching and unwanted hugs regarding Biden. He will say this in a crass enough way, probably after being frustrated, that he will momentarily forget that this is not good territory for him to open up for questioning.
Trump will brag about A) the economy, B) his response to the coronavirus, and C) his physical and mental health in relation to Biden’s.
Trump, at some point in the last sixty seconds of his closing remarks, will casually, emphatically, factually try and make the case - again - that if he loses, it is voter fraud and that he will not accept defeat. Biden will push him hard throughout to actually say this aloud. I predict at some point, he will do so.
These are not exactly incredible or insightful predictions. Just patterns likely to repeat.
Please, let this nation be run by an intelligent and empathetic individual again.
Keep track of how many times Trump:
Raises his pinky in the air
Says “loser” or “lost”
Says “won” and “winner”
Says “socialist” or “socialism”
Says “anarchy”
Interrupts when it’s not his turn
Censures the moderator
Talks about how much a specific group of people love him (“…they love me.”)